尿素周报：宏观因素扰动期货情绪，短期尿素现货偏弱运行-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, urea spot prices are weakly operating. In the futures market, last week, urea futures showed an N - shaped trend. Looking ahead to next week, in an environment where commodity futures decline significantly, urea futures are expected to open and move lower. There is a possibility of a large outflow of cash - and - carry arbitrage goods, leading to a negative feedback loop, and the weak situation is expected to be maintained in the short term. However, domestic urea production has decreased month - on - month, external demand has increased month - on - month, and domestic demand has strengthened month - on - month. It is recommended to actively close short positions after a significant decline in futures and wait for opportunities to enter long positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: From July 17 - 24, 2025, the weekly average daily output was 19.35 million tons. It is expected to be 19.00 million tons from July 25 - 31, 19.00 million tons from August 1 - 7, and 19.43 million tons from August 8 - 14. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production and 4 resumed, and this week, 2 enterprises are expected to conduct maintenance and 2 stopped enterprises are expected to resume production [5]. - Agricultural Demand: Agricultural demand is gradually ending and will basically disappear later [5]. - Demand: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 32.55% from July 17 - 24, 2025, and is expected to increase slowly. In the 30th week of 2025 (July 18 - 24), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 33.58%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03 percentage points. From January to June, the cumulative domestic thermal power generation was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, as the temperature rises, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5]. - Inventory: On July 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the decline narrowed [5]. - Cost: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 1300 yuan, and the anthracite price fluctuated [5]. - Profit: The production profit of the fixed - bed process in urea factories in Shanxi was 390 yuan and is expected to increase. The current profit is at a reasonable level, and with potential exports, the profit is expected to strengthen [5]. - Strategy: After a significant decline, maintain a long - position thinking for UR2509 and UR2509 - UR2601. For options, use a cumulative purchase option for UR2509 [5]. 3.2 Price - Domestic Urea Spot Price: Data on domestic urea spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and different particle sizes in Shanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7][8]. - International Urea Price and Spread: Data on international urea prices, spreads such as small - particle urea (Shandong factory port - collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port - collection cost), and FOB prices of small - particle urea in China and the Middle East from 2021 - 2025 are presented [9][10]. - Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices: Data on the prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers such as Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong potassium chloride from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12]. - Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread: Data on urea futures prices, basis, and inter - month spreads from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15]. 3.3 Supply - Urea Production: Data on the weekly average daily production of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 - 2025 are presented [17][18]. - Urea Cost and Profit: Data on the cost of anthracite and bituminous coal, and the marginal profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi and the new process in Henan from 2021 - 2025 are presented [20][21]. - Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption: Data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 are presented [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - Compound Fertilizer Industry: Data on the start - up rate and inventory of compound fertilizer enterprises from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][28]. - Melamine Industry: Data on the weekly output, price, and melamine/urea price ratio of melamine from 2021 - 2025 are presented [29][30]. - Export: Data on China's monthly and cumulative monthly urea export volume and year - on - year changes from 2021 - 2025 are presented [31][32]