原油周度思考-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil prices weakened at the end of the week. With the approaching deadline of the trade - war, the market remains worried. After the OPEC+ production increase in August, the market also anticipates a continued increase in September, with relatively high certainty on the supply side. The peak - season on the demand side is approaching, and major mainstream institutions have significant differences in their expectations for the peak - season, but the peak - season demand cannot be disproven at present. It is necessary to continue closely monitoring the market inventory. If inventory accumulates continuously, the market's peak - season demand expectation will be disappointed, and oil prices are expected to return to the trading logic of supply surplus. Overall, at present, crude oil lacks driving forces and is likely to show weak fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - Fundamentals: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 18 was - 577,000 barrels, compared with an expected - 646,000 barrels and a previous value of 839,000 barrels. As of the week ending July 21, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 971,000 barrels to 20.525 million barrels. The EIA report showed that US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, while domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - week high and imports hit a three - month high, with a sharp decrease in the proportion of Asian sources and a sharp drop in Chinese demand. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change the existing production - increase plan at the Monday meeting. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending July 25 was 415, down from the previous value of 422 [11][12]. - Macroeconomics: The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 were 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000. The US S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value in July was 55.2, and the Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5. The annualized total number of new home sales in the US in June was 627,000. The UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.9% [15][17]. - Geopolitical Conflicts: Iran will hold a tripartite meeting with China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear program. Russian President Putin will visit China in September to attend the 80th anniversary commemorative activities of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War. The next round of China - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. The US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [19][22]. - Institutional Forecasts: Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025 by $5 to $66 per barrel and the WTI crude oil price forecast to $63 per barrel, previously $57 per barrel. It maintains the forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively in 2026 [22]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - From July 27 to July 30, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. On July 30, data on the US API and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25 will be released. On July 30, data on the US ADP employment in July will be released. On July 31, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (upper limit), initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26, and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in June will be announced. On August 1, data on the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July will be released. On August 2, data on the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending August 1 will be released [23]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - Crude Oil Basic Prices: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle - East main contract are presented for different dates from 2024 to 2025, along with their weekly, monthly, and annual changes and change rates [32]. - Crude Oil Forward Prices: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils are shown for different dates in 2025 [55]. - Crude Oil Monthly Spreads: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oils, including different contract combinations, are presented, along with the prices of SC contracts [58][60]. - Crude Oil盘面 Spreads: The spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, Brent main contract and SC main contract, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) are shown [66][69]. - Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts: The premiums and discounts of Iranian, Saudi, Iraqi, and Kuwaiti oil grades to Asia, as well as the premiums and discounts of some oil grades in Shandong refineries, are presented [72][86]. - US Dollar Index: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices is shown [88]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast: OPEC's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2022 to 2026 are presented, including production, demand, supply - demand differences, and inventory data. The production forecasts of OPEC+ are also shown [96][97][99]. - EIA Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast: EIA's world supply - demand balance sheets from 2024 to 2026 are presented, including supply, demand, net inventory extraction, and end - of - period inventory data. The supply - demand differences for different quarters are also shown [108][110][111]. - OPEC Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production and Exports: The monthly production data of OPEC's total production, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are presented, as well as Iran's crude oil export data [115][117][119].