宏观周报 (7月21日-27日)：反内卷成为重要交易线索-20250727

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, 2023, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month, indicating sustained travel demand[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - By July 26, 2023, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38%, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires dropped by 3.25 percentage points to 73.8% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of anti-involution policies[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, 2023, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.27%[4] - The price of eggs surged by 5.56% week-on-week due to seasonal demand from summer tourism and early Mid-Autumn Festival preparations[4] International Macro - The U.S. employment market remains stable, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, alleviating concerns about rising unemployment rates[9] - The U.S. PMI for manufacturing in July was 49.5, below the expected 52.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[9] Policy and Market Trends - The yield on 30-year government bonds rose to 1.95%, while the yield on 10-year bonds reached 1.7%, indicating a significant adjustment in the bond market[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 in July, reflecting a 5.3% month-on-month increase but a 7.8% year-on-year decline, indicating fluctuating shipping demand[2]