烧碱周报：宏观市场扰动期货价格，山东液碱震荡运行-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from July 18 - 24, 2025), the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a 1.4% increase from last week. It is expected that next week's capacity utilization rate will remain around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - The alumina production in China this week was 1.831 million tons, showing an increase compared to last week's 1.792 million tons. The procurement price of liquid caustic soda by large - scale alumina factories in Shandong remained stable at 770 yuan/ton, with the equivalent 100% caustic soda price at 2,406 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of viscose staple fiber in the current cycle (from July 18 - 24, 2025) was 85,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week. The physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories decreased by 3,200 tons compared to the previous period but increased by 79,900 tons year - on - year [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 58.9%, remaining the same as the previous period. The operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry was weak and volatile, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the next period [5]. - In May, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 255,900 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 75,000 tons [5]. - As of July 24, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 408,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.38% increase from the previous period and a 4.29% increase year - on - year [5]. - Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,594 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 350 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 170 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [5]. - Last week, the spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda was relatively weaker than that of 32% liquid caustic soda. The price of liquid chlorine fluctuated sharply. The futures price of caustic soda first rose significantly and then fell back on Friday night [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises increased in most regions this week, with some regions having new maintenance or production reduction. Next week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will remain stable around 84%, with a weekly output of about 822,900 tons [5]. - Demand: Alumina production increased, viscose staple fiber production increased slightly, the printing and dyeing industry was weak, and the export volume in May was reported. The demand from downstream industries was generally weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both compared to the previous period and year - on - year, and the capacity - to - inventory ratio also increased in most regions [5]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong last week was at a historically low level [5]. - Price: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated weakly last week, and the futures price first rose significantly and then fell back [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong's 32% and 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, as well as the prices of raw salt and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - Production and Operating Rate: The report shows the historical data of China's weekly caustic soda production, operating rate, and device loss volume, as well as the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes [21]. - Inventory and Profit: It presents the historical data of the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong [24]. - Maintenance Plan: Lists the current and future maintenance plans of chlor - alkali devices in various regions [26]. 3.4 Demand - Alumina Industry: Displays the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda procurement price, and inventory data of the alumina industry [29][32]. - Textile Industry: Presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [35][38]. - Paper Pulp and Paper Industry: Shows the production of paper pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of upstream factories' paper products, and the cumulative production and its year - on - year changes of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard [41]. - Export: Displays the monthly and cumulative export volume data of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in China [44].