A股策略周思考：大暑已至，心平气和

Domestic Economic Overview - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with total revenue year-on-year remaining flat at -0.31%, compared to a previous value of 0.13%. Tax revenue increased by 1.04% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue continued to decline by -3.7% [8][9] - Government fund revenue saw a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.81% in June, compared to a previous decline of -8.15%. The land transaction revenue also rebounded, reporting a year-on-year increase of 21.89% [15][16] - The industrial production index showed a decline, with specific sectors like methanol and Shandong's independent refineries recovering, while others like pure alkali and polyester filament saw a downturn [20][21] International Conflict Tracking - The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey, with both sides discussing humanitarian agreements and potential future meetings [24] - In the Middle East, Israel confirmed that ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have not collapsed, while Hamas officials expressed readiness to resume talks [26][27] Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the "赛点 2.0" phase, indicating that the market is experiencing overheating and increased volatility. It suggests focusing on three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ breakthroughs, 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [33] - The report highlights that the core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation, especially in the context of low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts [33]