红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告：中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period of Xinjiang red dates. The temperature in the production area is suitable for fruit setting, and there is no concentrated fruit - dropping. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather changes. In the sales area, the arrival volume has increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, and spot market transactions have improved. [4] - Bullish factors include partial production reduction in some surveyed production areas and potentially poor quality of new - season red dates. Bearish factors are high inventory, sufficient market supply, the consumption off - season from July to August, and a likely normal to slightly small - yield year according to the survey results. [4] - Recommended trading strategies are to short at high prices for single - side trading, go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading, with no recommendations for volatility and options trading. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively. [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival volume has increased compared to last week, prices have fluctuated slightly, and high - quality goods have stronger prices. The reference prices for different grades are: super - special grade 10.50 - 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade 9.50 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade 8.60 - 9.00 yuan/kg, second - grade 7.50 - 7.80 yuan/kg, and third - grade 6.10 - 6.30 yuan/kg. [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special grade and first - grade is 1.11 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week; the price difference between first - grade and second - grade is 1.0 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% decrease from the previous week and a 73.07% increase from the same period last year. [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Area) - The average purchase price of grey dates in Xinjiang's main production area is 5.33 yuan/kg, the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 8.60 - 8.90 yuan/kg, the freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 380 - 400 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 1.92 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special Grade, First Grade) - The futures price of red dates has weakened, the spot price has been stable, and the futures - spot basis has strengthened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 545 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product. [22] Contract Spread - The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts has narrowed, with a discount of 225 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 contracts have a premium of 1235 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 contracts are oscillating, with a discount of 1010 yuan/ton. There is a potential positive - spread arbitrage opportunity for the 9 - 1 contracts. [25] Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of July 25, the number of registered warehouse receipts for red dates is 8813, the number of valid forecasts is 1455, totaling 10268, equivalent to 51340 tons of spot goods. [30]