如何看待房地产指数的脉冲式行情？产业赛道与主题投资风向标

Group 1 - The report highlights that the long-term excess returns of the real estate index are correlated with trends in sales growth and price growth, indicating a cyclical nature in the market [2][7][10] - In the past year, the real estate index has shown a pulsing zigzag pattern characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation, driven mainly by short-term stimulus policies rather than fundamental recovery [2][10][11] - The average excess return during the last six upward phases of the index reached 13%, with an average duration of 18 days, suggesting potential for new upward movements if positive signals are released from upcoming policy meetings [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" theme, emphasizing the orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality industry development, with a focus on sectors like steel, pig farming, and cement [30] - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create opportunities in related sectors such as cement, steel materials, and hydropower equipment [33] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector is projected to experience high growth driven by policy and demand resonance, with a target market scale exceeding 280 billion yuan by 2028, indicating strong investment potential in AI infrastructure [37][41]