国泰君安期货能源化工石油沥青周度报告-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asphalt valuation is expected to be neutral to weak due to mediocre fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [4][5] - In terms of strategies, consider partial profit - taking for reverse spreads in the inter - period and for short - cracking in the inter - variety [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 28.8%, a 4.0% week - on - week decrease. The average weekly domestic asphalt processing profit was - 524 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. Next week, there is an expected slight increase in supply in some areas [4] - Demand: Downstream buyers purchase low - price asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north and south markets has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure. In Shandong, continuous rainfall has hindered terminal demand, while in East China, some terminal projects are under concentrated construction, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt has increased by 0.2% to 15.8% [4] - Valuation: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil. The average weekly domestic asphalt price was 3784 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The price fluctuation range was 3764 - 3794 yuan/ton, and the range expanded. Prices rose in 2 regions, fell in 4 regions, and remained stable in 1 region [5] 3.2 Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by various factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different advantages, such as no need for crude oil quotas and exemption from consumption tax [8] - Futures: Data on futures prices, trading volume, and open interest are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC [12] - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, along with the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [13] - Spread: The basis and month - to - month spreads in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta are presented [17][20] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - Consumption Distribution: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact [23] - Downstream Shipment: From July 16 - 22, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.5 tons, a 0.2% week - on - week increase. The capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises was 14.5%, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease and a 2.5% year - on - year increase [28] 3.3.2 Supply - Supply Pattern: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). Key indicators include inventory, production profit, and maintenance plans [29] - Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials: From July 18 - 24, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt output was 51.7 tons, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease and a 12.1% year - on - year increase. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 0.1% [32] - 开工率 (Operating Rate): Data on the weekly operating rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [34][36][38] - Inventory: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions are presented [46]