日本消费行业6月跟踪报告：高温提振饮料与夏装销售，免税消费加速下滑

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for certain Japanese consumer companies, particularly Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group, due to their optimistic profit growth prospects [5]. Core Insights - High temperatures in June boosted sales of beverages and summer clothing, while duty-free consumption saw a significant decline [2][13]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 34.5 in June, the highest in four months, indicating improved consumer sentiment [7]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across different sectors, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary spending faced challenges [4][26]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index increased to 34.5 in June, up from 32.8 in May, with all sub-indices showing improvement [7]. - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, a decrease from 3.7% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflation [9]. - The producer price index (PPI) increased by 2.9% year-on-year in June, reflecting easing cost pressures for producers [11]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH, 7-Eleven, and Aeon reporting increases of 4.5%, 2.0%, and 2.1% respectively [3][15]. - Beverage sales turned positive due to high temperatures, with Suntory and Asahi reporting year-on-year sales growth of 1% and 9% respectively [18]. - The overall beer industry faced challenges, with Asahi's domestic revenue declining by 1% and Kirin's by 2% [20]. Discretionary Consumption - Clothing sales remained robust, with Workman and Uniqlo reporting same-store sales growth of 15.0% and 6.4% respectively [28]. - Restaurant same-store sales growth slowed, with major brands like Food&Life and McDonald's showing increases of 14.5% and 3.6% respectively [26]. - Department store sales continued to decline, with a 7.8% year-on-year drop in June, primarily due to a 40.6% decrease in duty-free sales [34]. Stock Market Performance - In June, the retail sector index rose by 3.7%, while the food and beverage sector increased by 0.7% [42]. - The report notes significant inflows into retail and food and beverage ETFs, indicating investor interest in these sectors [5].