财信证券宏观策略周报（7.28-8.1）：市场回稳向好态势明确，积极参与A股市场机会-20250727

Group 1 - The report indicates a clear upward trend in the A-share market, with improved investor sentiment as the market shows resilience against negative news and rallies on positive news, suggesting an increase in investment tolerance [6][9][10] - The technical analysis shows that the Wind All A Index is consistently operating above the 5-day moving average, with the next resistance level being the high point from the end of 2021 [6][9] - The influx of previously sidelined funds is expected to provide support for broad market indices, with limited adjustments anticipated even if the index experiences corrections [6][9][10] Group 2 - The report highlights several sectors to focus on for potential investment opportunities, including the AI industry chain, which is expected to gain momentum with the upcoming launch of OpenAI's GPT-5 and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in 2025 [6][18] - Companies expected to exceed mid-year earnings forecasts, such as those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, are also recommended for attention [6][18] - Defensive sectors like military and rare earths are suggested due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic events [6][18] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market has shown a strong performance recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.33% during the week of July 21-25 [19][20] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 19.24% compared to the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of large-cap stocks versus small-cap stocks, with small-cap stocks showing relative strength [20] Group 4 - The report discusses the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the market, including the upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations, which could lead to significant asset price fluctuations if outcomes are unfavorable [10][16] - The report also mentions the importance of observing the profitability of industrial enterprises in July as a key indicator of the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving corporate earnings [12][13] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policies are crucial for addressing the current challenges of low prices and competition, which could lead to a stabilization of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [12][13]