情绪有望回暖，颠簸依旧存在

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week as exchanges cool down commodities and the Politburo meeting's incremental policies are likely limited. The central bank will maintain market liquidity, and funds are expected to return to a loose state after the month - end. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [2][14] - It is difficult for market risk appetite to continue rising next week. The commodity market rally is driven by sentiment, and there is a risk that market expectations for incremental policies may be disappointed. Market risk appetite is expected to decline gradually [14] - There is no basis for the continuous tightening of the funds market. After the month - end, the funds market is expected to loosen, and the sentiment in the treasury bond market may improve [15][16] - Market fluctuations will continue in Q3, and a trend - based market may not appear until Q4. The bond market is not at risk of a long - term bear market, and it will turn bullish after the central bank's interest - rate cut expectations rise [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 21 - 27, treasury bond futures declined significantly. Influenced by various factors such as investment news, commodity price changes, and central bank policies, the prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts decreased by 0.108, 0.420, 0.615, and 2.410 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Market sentiment is expected to improve, but fluctuations will persist. Risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and trend - based market may appear in Q4. Strategies include cautiously gambling on oversold rebound opportunities, considering short - hedging strategies, and constructing curve - steepening strategies [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 84 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.805 billion yuan and a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 25, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 4.92, 9.14, 7.07, and 9.15 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [26][27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined significantly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts changed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year contracts showing an increase in open interest [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive - arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The IRR of CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the positive - arbitrage strategy opportunities were relatively few [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 25, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts were - 0.082, - 0.060, - 0.015, and + 0.220 yuan respectively. The long - term far - season contracts declined slightly more [45][46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funds Market - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan this week, but the overall net investment was 109.5 billion yuan. The funds rate increased slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [49][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined slightly. As of July 25, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80% to 97.6701, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a 4 - basis - point decline from last weekend [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of July 25, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy - chemical index increased, while the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits changed differently [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, it is recommended to cautiously gamble on oversold rebound opportunities. Long - term, there is no bearish view, but it may be too early for allocation funds to go long. Consider short - hedging strategies and construct curve - steepening strategies [2][65]