产业经济周观点：中国价格上升周期确立，海外通胀时代开启-20250727

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's current trade conflict has led to a positive growth rate in export prices for the first time, alongside a recovery in capacity utilization, suggesting a shift towards a seller's pricing model in China's production system [2][9][11] - The upward trend in China's price cycle appears to be established, with the potential for a long-term inflationary period overseas [3][11] - Following the recovery in prices in China, the renminbi is expected to appreciate more rapidly, highlighting risks associated with dollar-denominated assets [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant recovery in various industries, particularly in energy (coking coal, coke), chemicals (soda ash, glass), and non-ferrous metals (polysilicon, metal silicon, lithium carbonate, tin, zinc, nickel) as of July 25 [8][9] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 2.51% [18] - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.67% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index leading the gains [22][34] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including the PCE price index and non-farm payroll data, which could impact market dynamics [51][54] - The report notes that the manufacturing capacity utilization rate in China improved to 74.3% in Q2, up from 74.1% previously, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing [9][16] - The report suggests that the cyclical industries are leading the market, with small metals, cement, and energy metals showing significant relative performance against the Shanghai Composite Index [34][38]