南华期货焦煤焦炭周报：当头一棒-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot prices of coking coal continued to rise, with the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal quoted at 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton and the price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal at 1400 - 1450 yuan/ton. The third round of price increases for coke spot was implemented, and the fourth round was initiated on Sunday, expected to be officially implemented on Monday. The coking coal and coke futures experienced sharp fluctuations during the week, with significant changes in price and spreads [4]. - The coking coal market: Domestically, coal mines that had reduced or suspended production due to environmental protection and inventory issues are gradually resuming production, but at a slow pace. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports has returned to normal, and the import profit of overseas coal is continuously improving, which is expected to be reflected in the arrival volume in 1 - 2 months. The rebound in the futures market has driven the speculative demand for spot coking coal, leading to a rapid price increase and stimulating downstream coking plants to replenish raw material inventories. The short - term demand for coking coal has been boosted, and the inventory structure has improved significantly [4]. - The coke market: Due to the sharp increase in the price of coking coal, the losses of coking plants have widened, and their production enthusiasm is average. With the implementation of the third - round price increase and the ongoing pursuit of the fourth round, and considering the high profits of steel products, coke has a basis for further price increases. The demand for coke is strong, with high iron - making water production, rigid procurement demand from steel mills, and active participation of futures - cash traders in the market [5]. - After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures on Friday night, the coking coal futures market experienced a sharp decline, and related industrial futures also tumbled. If the speculative demand that entered the market earlier is unwound, the outflow of off - balance - sheet inventory will impact the spot market. Coking plants are currently in a wait - and - see mode, with insufficient motivation to continue replenishing inventories. Further price increases require the introduction of more than expected macro - policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Balance Sheet - Coking Coal: The total supply of coking coal has shown certain fluctuations. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coking coal production was 977.08 million tons, and the net import was 190 million tons, with a total supply of 1167.08 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production also had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 69.57 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. - Coke: The total supply of coke also fluctuated. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coke production was 782.32 million tons, and the net export was 10.88 million tons, with a total domestic supply of 771.44 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 7.42 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. 3.2 Key News This Week - Macro News: China's Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law [11]. - Industry News: Shagang raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton. The third - round price increase of coke was fully implemented. Steel enterprises at the Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum agreed to strengthen industry self - discipline. The Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Data: The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 0.83 percentage points to 86.9%, and the daily average raw coal production increased by 1.86 million tons to 194.74 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 62.31%, and the daily average cleaned coal production decreased by 1.23 million tons to 52.145 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal decreased by 69.57 million tons to 2982.88 million tons. The total inventory of coke decreased by 7.42 million tons to 918.23 million tons [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke futures showed significant changes. For example, the basis of coking coal (Tangshan Mongolian 5) decreased by 203 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [18]. - Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices: The spot prices of coking coal and coke generally increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal increased by 150 yuan/ton to 1450 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Luliang quasi - first - grade wet coke increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1130 yuan/ton [19]. - Price, Profit, and Spread: The coking profit was negative, and the import profit of some coking coals improved. The ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.0732 to 2.4123 [20]. 3.4 Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.9%, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average raw coal production was 194.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the raw coal inventory decreased by 79.3 million tons to 536.0 million tons. The daily average cleaned coal production was 77.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 60.6 million tons to 278.4 million tons [63]. - Coal - washing Plants: The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The daily average production was 52.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.23 million tons. The raw coal inventory decreased by 6.16 million tons to 292.53 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 15.93 million tons to 175.61 million tons [65]. - Ports: The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 41.46 million tons to 512.04 million tons [65]. 3.5 Coke Supply and Inventory - Independent Coking Plants: The capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The daily average coke production was 64.60 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons, and the coke inventory decreased by 7.43 million tons to 80.12 million tons. The total coking coal inventory increased by 56.27 million tons to 985.38 million tons [96]. - Steel Mills: The daily average coke production was 47.16 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons. The coke inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 639.98 million tons. The coking coal inventory increased by 8.41 million tons to 799.51 million tons [96]. - Ports: The inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased by 2.38 million tons to 250.33 million tons [96]. 3.6 Steel Production and Inventory - 247 steel mills: The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The daily average iron - making water production was 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons [130]. - Steel Supply and Demand: The production of five major steel products was 866.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The total steel inventory was 1336.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The steel consumption was 868.13 million tons, with an increase of 2.7% in building material consumption and a decrease of 1.7% in plate consumption [130]. 3.7 Coal and Coke Import and Export - Coking Coal Import: The import volume of coking coal showed certain fluctuations, and the import structure also changed. The import volume from Mongolia, Russia, and other countries had different trends [169]. - Coke Export: The export volume of coke and semi - coke also showed seasonal changes, and the export profit also fluctuated [180][194].