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Xinda Securities·2025-07-27 09:44

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the current favorable conditions for export chain layout and the rebound of new consumption, suggesting a focus on bottom-cycle assets [2] - The paper highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, new tobacco, exports, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheeled vehicles, pets, cross-border e-commerce, retail IP, and mother-baby products, each with specific growth opportunities and recommendations [2][3][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - The report notes ongoing overseas supply disruptions and domestic efforts to combat "involution," which may drive the paper cycle upward. It suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. for potential profit recovery [2] New Tobacco - Philip Morris International reported Q2 revenue of $10.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with new tobacco revenue up 15.2%. The report anticipates a 12%-14% growth in new tobacco shipments for the year [2] Exports - June export data showed a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, with furniture exports up 1.9%. The report suggests focusing on companies with robust overseas production capabilities due to ongoing tariff impacts [2] Smart Glasses - Alibaba's launch of the Quark AI glasses is expected to enhance the industry's influence, with anticipated sales growth driven by improved product capabilities [3] Home Furnishings - Despite industry pressures, companies like IYI Home are experiencing steady growth due to high customer repurchase rates. The report recommends focusing on brands that cater to young consumers [4] Gold and Jewelry - Chow Tai Fook's retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the report suggests that the overall market may be nearing a recovery point [4] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - TaoTao's global manufacturing layout is accelerating, with significant production capacity in Vietnam and the U.S. expected to meet market demands [4] Pets - Yuanfei Pet's stock incentive plan targets revenue growth, with a focus on enhancing its overseas supply chain and developing proprietary brands [4] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs, with leading sellers actively pursuing global expansion strategies [4] Retail IP - The report discusses the growth of Pop Mart and its strategies to enhance brand recognition and operational capabilities [4] Mother-Baby Products - The report notes that children's health care is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Kidswant leveraging technology for market advantage [5]