中美第三轮谈判在即，LPG相对原油走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, showing a weaker trend compared to crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the divergence in global supply will decrease in the future. [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is approaching, but the blending market has been operating at a high capacity utilization rate. If expectations are not met, a negative feedback loop may quickly form. Additionally, summer is a traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little possibility of unexpected changes. [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices are likely to fluctuate following crude oil. In the long - and medium - term, civilian demand is entering an off - season, and chemical profit margins are difficult to expand further. Therefore, LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of the third round of China - US negotiations. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - The domestic LPG market showed a divergent trend this period. Civil gas prices rose slightly, while the price of ether - after carbon four declined. For civil gas, refinery supply was generally under no pressure, and the number of incoming vessels at import terminals decreased. Also, civil gas prices were generally low, showing a slight upward trend during the week. However, prices in the East China region declined due to the large volume and low price of local industrial gas. [5] - The expected average price of propane CP was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.66%. The expected average price of butane CP was 507 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 21 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.98%. The average price of propane CFR in South China was 543 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 23 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.06%. The average price of butane CFR in South China was 520 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 16 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 2.99%. [5] - Recommended futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices. [7] PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Import: The report presents historical data on LPG import volume, including weekly arrival volume in China, monthly import volume from different countries (such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and import trade profit margins in the South China region. [13][16] - LPG Freight: It shows historical freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East. [19] - LPG Inventory: The report includes data on port inventory in China, refinery capacity utilization ratios in China, and factory - level inventory in China, as well as the production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China. [21][25] - Industrial Indicators: It presents data on the operating rates and production profit margins of PDH plants, MTBE plants, and alkylation oil plants in China. [30][32][34] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - Import Cost: It shows the CP far - month and current - month prices, including the predicted prices of propane and butane, CP contract prices, and the price trends of CP crude oil. [39] - Domestic Prices: It includes the ex - factory prices of civil LPG in different refineries (such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao), the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride. [41][45][46][47][49] PART 04: Other LPG Data - It shows the historical data of the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses. [53][55]