中泰期货纸浆周报-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper pulp market is currently in a state of weak reality versus bullish sentiment on the futures market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate upwards due to sentiment, but the upward space is limited. Given the current lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals, the market may correct after the release of the bullish sentiment. It is recommended to observe whether the de - stocking at ports continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic Production: The weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 20.50 million tons in the week of July 25, 2025, a decrease of 0.10 million tons from the previous week, a decline of 0.26%. The production of chemimechanical pulp was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.50 million tons from the previous week. Weak downstream demand and low purchasing sentiment are expected to keep domestic pulp prices under pressure next week [7][8]. - Imports: In June 2025, China's total pulp imports were 3.031 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3%. The cumulative imports for the year were 18.578 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The imports of softwood pulp were 678 million tons, a decrease of 44 million tons from the previous month, a decline of 1.92%. The imports of broad - leaf pulp were 1.435 billion tons, an increase of 142 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.00%. Affected by overseas shipping and seasonal factors, the arrivals in July and August are expected to be stable, but the arrival of softwood pulp is still expected to be weak [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Downstream Production: The downstream production of pulp remained stable this week. The production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard showed little change. The new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable production but gradually decreasing operating rates and oscillating inventory [9]. - Inventory: Port inventory is in the process of de - stocking, and it is necessary to observe whether this trend continues. Warehouse receipt inventory is stable with a tendency to de - stock. Low prices have led to insufficient registration of new warehouse receipts, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. Downstream inventory is in a state of oscillating accumulation during the off - season, but production and sales are basically balanced [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: The external quotation of pulp is expected to decline. Spot prices are rising in quotation but weak in actual transactions. The futures price is oscillating, with a contradiction between positive policy sentiment and weak fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the policy orientation may push up the bottom gradually. The prices of finished paper products are gradually decreasing as they enter the off - season [11][12]. - Spreads: The spread between softwood and broad - leaf pulp is expected to narrow but with limited amplitude. Affected by policy sentiment and the expectation of the peak season, the spread between the September and January contracts has widened. After the futures price rose this week, the spot price struggled to rise, causing the basis to weaken [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether spot trading improves in the short term. Given the limited upward and downward space, holders of physical pulp are advised to sell call options on rallies [17]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly balance sheet of pulp from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on downstream production, imports, domestic production, total supply, consumption, demand, and inventory. The cumulative supply and demand of pulp show different growth rates in different periods, and the inventory situation also changes accordingly [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - side: - Pulp Imports: The report presents the import volume and cumulative import volume of different types of pulp (softwood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, chemimechanical pulp, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as the import volume and cumulative import volume of wood chips (softwood chips, broad - leaf wood chips). The import volume of different types of pulp shows different trends in different years and months [40][46][80]. - Production Capacity and Planned Projects: There are many planned and under - construction projects for finished paper products in the second half of the year. For example, there are 1.7 billion tons of planned white cardboard projects in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the monthly output of white cardboard will increase gradually, with an average monthly output of over 1.4 billion tons and an average capacity utilization rate of over 80% [101]. - Demand - side: - Pulp Apparent Demand: No specific data analysis is provided in the current content. - Finished Paper Products: The report analyzes the supply (production, import), demand (export, apparent demand) of different types of finished paper products (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), and presents relevant data from 2022 to 2025 [92][103][119]. - Inventory - side: - Total Pulp Inventory, Warehouse Receipts, and Port Inventory: The report shows the changes in total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [145]. - Inventory by Port: The report presents the weekly inventory changes of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Gaolan Port, Changshu Port) from 2022 to 2025 [149]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: The import cost of pulp shows different trends, and the spot quotation is rising, leading to a rebound in immediate import profit [14][157]. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: The cost of domestic pulp is relatively stable, and the profit is showing a downward trend. Domestic pulp has raised its quotation under the anti - involution policy, and the market acceptance is acceptable at relatively low prices [14][160]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp External Quotation: The external quotation of different types of pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle, Goldfish, etc.) shows different trends in different years and months [166]. - Price and Spread Seasonality: The report presents the seasonal price changes of different types of pulp and the seasonal spread changes between different types of pulp [171][176]. - Basis: The report analyzes the basis between different types of pulp and the futures contract, and the basis has shown different trends in different periods [178][186].