聚酯数据周报-20250727

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]