2025年1-6月工业企业盈利数据的背后：工业利润：反内卷支撑或较为渐进

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%[2] - The profit growth rate slowed down, with June showing a 4.3% year-on-year decline, narrowing the drop by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[2] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.15%, which is 0.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, significantly impacting profit growth[2] - Effective demand remains insufficient, and industrial product prices are low, which continues to drag on profit recovery[3] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 2025 was 74.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from Q1, indicating a low position that hinders cost reduction[2] Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies are showing continued support for profit recovery, particularly benefiting the equipment manufacturing sector[3] - In June, the equipment manufacturing sector's revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year, with profits increasing by 9.6%, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-end equipment manufacturing sectors, such as electronic materials and aircraft manufacturing, saw profit increases of 68.1% and 19.0% respectively[4] Group 4: Inventory and Market Conditions - As of June 2025, the inventory of finished products for industrial enterprises increased by 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting a flattening inventory cycle[9] - The current inventory-to-sales ratio remains high, indicating a willingness among enterprises to reduce inventory despite ongoing pressures[9] - The MPI industrial inventory forward index suggests that the inventory cycle will continue to exhibit a flattening characteristic throughout 2025[9]