固定收益周度策略报告：“二次调整”的空间评估-20250727

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market is driven by a strong rebound in commodity prices, which has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a corresponding increase in stock prices [3][7]. - The current commodity price rebound is characterized as a "lagging pricing" response to the previous mild expansion of the credit cycle, rather than the start of a new macroeconomic cycle [4][10]. - The report suggests that the market environment in the second half of the year may resemble that of 2019 and 2022, with a mild expansion of the credit cycle followed by a potential decline in social financing momentum [5][25]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the recent commodity price increases are more of a "catch-up" effect due to previous underpricing in relation to the credit cycle recovery, rather than an indication of a new macroeconomic expansion [11][18]. - It is noted that the leading commodities in the recent price surge were those that had previously underperformed, indicating a tendency towards "oversold recovery" [14][17]. - The analysis highlights that the current credit cycle is nearing its peak, and any adjustments in the bond market are expected to be less severe than those observed in the first half of the year [6][30].