国泰君安期货能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20250727

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - Supply: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - Demand: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - Inventory: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - Valuation: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - Supply: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - Demand: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - Viewpoint: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Capacity: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - Supply - side - Operating Rate: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - Net Imports: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - Inventory - side: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].