国泰君安期货能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250727

Report Overview - Report Title: Short Fiber and Bottle Chip Weekly Report - Report Date: July 27, 2025 - Analyst Team: Chen Xinchao, He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin Industry Investment Ratings - Short Fiber (PF): Short - term, the outlook is oscillating upward due to cost support [8] - Bottle Chip (PR): Short - term, the outlook is oscillating, with a weakening trend in the long - term [5][9] Core Views - Short Fiber: Cost support leads to a short - term oscillating upward trend. Demand is at the bottom and may oscillate at a low level in the short term. The most difficult seasonal period may have passed, with neutral inventory and profits above the cash - flow cost [8] - Bottle Chip: Cost support results in a short - term oscillating market. After production cuts are implemented, there is an expectation of inventory reduction from July to August, and processing fees have room to expand. However, there are still downward pressures in the long - term [9] Summary by Section Bottle Chip (PR) Upstream View Summary - "Anti - involution" policies may increase costs, but have little impact on supply as most bottle - chip devices are less than 10 years old, and the cost gradient among leading enterprises is narrow [12] Valuation and Profit - Current processing fees are between 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively low - to - neutral level and may gradually increase with the tightening of spot supply. Aggregate costs have risen, and export profits are oscillating weakly [49] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: Leading factories have implemented production cuts, and the possibility of further cuts is low. The current operating rate is 79%. If processing fees are restored to the ideal level, restart may be advanced [9] - Demand: Domestic downstream operating rates remain high, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory when prices are low. Sea freight has declined, and the impact on exports from July to August has weakened. There is an expectation of inventory reduction from July to August [9] Inventory - Factory inventory remained flat this week. With the implementation of production cuts, inventory is expected to decrease. The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has declined [54] Device Changes - Production cuts have been implemented as planned. Some factories have carried out maintenance, and there are no planned future maintenance devices for now [60][61] Demand - Downstream operating rates remain high. However, from January to June 2025, the performance of essential consumer sectors such as beverages and edible oils was generally weak. There are still many new production lines of beverage factories to be put into operation this year [70][71] Export - In the short term, exports are affected by sea freight, but the long - term trend is strong. In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [83] Anti - Dumping Policies - Multiple countries have implemented anti - dumping policies and investigations on Chinese bottle - chip products, which may have an impact on exports [94] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, the market is in a tight balance, and inventory will accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions include the possible continuation of production cuts until the end of August and the commissioning of new devices in September. Demand assumptions are based on a 5% year - on - year increase in the peak season compared to last year, and export demand is expected to recover in August [95][96] Short Fiber (PF) Valuation - The spot, basis, and monthly spreads have weakened. The processing fee on the disk is weak due to rising costs [100][104] Fundamental Operating Conditions - Supply: The operating rate of short - fiber factories remains high. The average operating rate this week was 90.6%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning was 94.7%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [8] - Demand: The operating rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out, but yarn production is still reducing due to high inventory. External demand orders will not be reflected until mid - to - late August. Short - fiber inventory is still healthy [8] Inventory - Downstream enterprises have replenished inventory intensively, and the inventory pressure has been relieved [115] Profit - With the decline in costs, most profits have been restored, but polyester chips are still in a loss - making state [123] Downstream Situation - The inventory pressure of polyester yarn is relatively large, and the operating rate is decreasing. Terminal enterprises have replenished inventory, but yarn inventory is still accumulating [131][133] Weaving Operating Rate - The terminal operating rate has bottomed out and is rising [144][147]