全球资产配置每周聚焦（20250718-20250725）：全球资金大幅流出美股，A股期权市场定价乐观-20250727

Market Overview - Global asset prices showed an upward trend, with the Nikkei 225 and ChiNext leading the gains, while most commodities experienced declines[4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6388.64, remaining above the 20-day moving average, indicating strong momentum[4] Capital Flows - As of July 24, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $5.35 million, while passive funds recorded an inflow of $26.01 million[18] - Domestic capital experienced a net outflow of $1.41 million, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $20.66 million[18] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the A-share market decreased to a historical 60th percentile, with the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP dropping from 59% to 53%[4] - The ERP for the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 also saw declines, indicating a shift in valuation sentiment[4] Risk Sentiment - The Chinese options market reflects an optimistic pricing trend, with a notable increase in the volume of call options for the CSI 300 above the 4100 level[4] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 increased to 1.16, suggesting a cautious market sentiment and rising hedging demand[4] Economic Data - U.S. economic data for June indicates resilience, with a significant improvement in CPI and PMI figures, alleviating concerns over stagflation[4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose to 64.5%, reflecting market expectations for monetary easing[4]