信用分析周报（7/21-2025/7/25)：信用债机会或源自调整-20250727

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Credit bond yields adjusted significantly, increasing the cost - performance of credit bonds from a static coupon perspective. With the rapid decline of black - series futures prices on Friday night, bond market sentiment may improve, and the space for further credit bond adjustment is relatively limited. It is recommended to continue to focus on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, strongly recommend long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng, and be bullish on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds [3][4][56]. - Since July 2024, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel. The yield of ultra - long - term credit bonds has followed suit, and the current compression of credit spreads is not as extreme as last year. Buying sentiment may not have reached its end, and the market may further evolve towards long - duration assets [5][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 390.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 220.3 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 3.09 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 910 million yuan. In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 3.31 billion yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan; that of industrial bonds was 11.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 24.69 billion yuan, an increase of 16.74 billion yuan [16]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA - rated industrial bonds and AA + - rated financial bonds increased significantly compared to last week, by 51BP and 41BP respectively. The fluctuations of other bond types and ratings did not exceed 10BP [23][24]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 178 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.2 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 361.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 611.6 billion yuan, an increase of 151.2 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 220 million yuan [24]. 3.2.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different maturities and ratings increased significantly, ranging from 7 - 17BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 7BP, 8BP, and 8BP respectively compared to last week [31]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA + electronics and building materials narrowed by 17BP and 8BP respectively, and those of AA + light manufacturing and AAA leisure services narrowed slightly [34]. - Urban Investment Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened overall, with the short - end widening more than the long - end. Regionally, most urban investment credit spreads widened, while a small number compressed slightly [40][41]. - Industrial Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of AA + and above industrial bonds widened to varying degrees, and the short - end of AA industrial bonds also widened [45]. - Bank Capital Bonds: This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened overall, with the widening range of different maturities and ratings between 3 - 9BP [50]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 5 debt issues; Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 12 debt issues downgraded; Inner Mongolia Oujing Technology Co., Ltd. was put on the watchlist, and its "Oujing Convertible Bond" was also included; Midea Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 20 debt issues downgraded; and Aoyuan Group Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 3 debt issues [2][51]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds. For industrial bonds, China State Grid has the largest scale of ultra - long - term credit bonds, but the yield is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group, Sinochem Group, Guangzhou Yuexiu Group, and Sichuan Energy Investment Group are more cost - effective. For urban investment bonds, although the static coupon rate is generally better, the selectable scope is relatively narrow. Pay attention to the spread compression opportunities of Shenzhen Metro, Shaanxi Communications Holdings, Yantai Guofeng, and Yizhuang Investment and Development. The cost - performance of bank Tier 2 capital bonds is limited [6][63].