供给端扰动发酵，锂价持续突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side disturbances are causing lithium prices to continue to break through previous levels. Additionally, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent price corrections due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements [1][37]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant increase this week, with a 6.7% rise in the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index. Sub-sectors such as small metals and energy metals experienced even higher gains of 14.3% and 12.4%, respectively [10][17]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Price strength driven by tariff easing and anti-involution sentiment. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 13.16% year-on-year to 6.6276 million tons in the first half of the year, despite supply constraints [2]. - Aluminum: Short-term price fluctuations due to changing sentiments around anti-involution policies. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 43.975 million tons, with minor production adjustments observed [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Continued supply-side disturbances led to a price increase, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 14.3% to 79,000 yuan/ton. Concerns over mining license renewals may tighten supply further [2][28]. - Silicon Metal: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to market sentiment influenced by anti-involution policies, despite stable demand from downstream industries [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have corrected due to improved market risk appetite following trade agreements, but the long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged amid ongoing concerns over global monetary credit and public debt [1][37]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Shanxi International (Buy) - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) [5].