石油化工行业周报：石化行业“反内卷”哪些值得关注？-20250727

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly in the refining, olefins, and polyester sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity in certain areas, with a significant portion of refining capacity being outdated. The report anticipates that accelerating the retirement of these old facilities could lead to a recovery in refining profitability [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new capacity additions and optimizing existing capacity to mitigate excessive competition, aligning with the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out inefficient production [5][11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell 3.24% to $65.16 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $68.79 and $65.79, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 9% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 542, down 47 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [31]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the refining sector is experiencing a significant oversupply, with nearly half of the capacity being outdated. The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential investment [4][5]. - The Singapore refining margin increased to $15.31 per barrel, indicating some improvement in refining profitability despite the overall low profit levels [4]. Polyester Sector - The PTA market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 1.45% to 4790.2 RMB per ton. The report suggests that if new supply is strictly controlled, the profitability of leading polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials could improve [11][15]. - The report highlights that the polyester industry is entering a phase of orderly growth, with expectations for a gradual improvement in profitability as new capacity additions slow down [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to their favorable competitive positions and potential for profitability improvement [15][16].