本轮债市调整到位了吗？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjustment may have some short - term repair due to emerging positives, but in the long run, the probability of interest rates breaking through the lows is small, and the interest rate center is expected to fluctuate and rise [2][8]. - The bond market short - term adjustment is in place, with possible over - decline repair, but the downward amplitude may be limited, and heavy - position participation is not recommended. Strategies suggest being cautious in duration, reducing annual return expectations, and seizing short - term trading opportunities [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Adjustment Situation - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of equities and commodities, and the yield of each maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 6.72BP to 1.73% compared with July 18, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 1.97%, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening [5]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market Funding Aspect - The central bank began large - scale injections at the end of the month, showing an obvious attitude of care. On Thursday, the suddenly tightened funding became the "last straw" for the bond market, but on Friday, the central bank's operations led to a rapid shift to a loose funding situation, with a net injection of 8018 billion yuan [2][8]. Asset - Liability Aspect - The reduction of the insurance预定利率 is a short - term positive for the bond market, but it also has two - sided effects. It may lead to a reduction in the adjustment range of the bond market, but it may also cause a loss of insurance liability - side funds [2][10]. Institutional Behavior Aspect - Insurance has changed from a stable configuration strategy to a trading mindset. The weekly average net purchase scale in July decreased to 44.8 billion yuan, lower than that from February to March [2][15]. - During the bond market's weak adjustment this week, the main selling forces were funds and securities companies, while rural commercial banks increased their positions. Funds further reduced their duration, and the 10 - day average of the net purchase duration of funds has dropped to a relatively low historical quantile level [16]. Key Psychological Point and Technical Analysis - 1.75% is a key psychological point in the market, and the probability of a short - term rapid break to 1.80% is low [22]. - Technically, the bearish force has increased marginally, but short - term technical indicators show over - decline rebound signals. There may be over - decline trading opportunities next week, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level [23]. Long - Term Impact of Re - inflation Trading - The re - inflation trading caused by anti - involution is still in the initial stage, so its impact on the bond market is limited [24][27].