反内卷预期、流动性支持与债券市场的多空取舍

Group 1 - Recent pressure on the bond market stems from "anti-involution" expectations, essentially a rapid interpretation of medium-term logic in the short term. The recent rise in commodity futures prices has impacted the bond market more on an expectation and sentiment level, with prices likely to experience a cooling process after heating up [6][17][21] - The "anti-involution" expectation has intensified since early June, particularly in the past two weeks, with significant increases in commodity futures such as lithium carbonate, coking coal, and polysilicon, driven more by expectations and sentiment rather than fundamentals [6][17][21] - The bond market's pressure is concentrated in the short term due to crowded trading structures, with expectations leading fundamentals. The fourth quarter may be a critical verification point for the "anti-involution" effect [6][17][21] Group 2 - After the recent pulse adjustment in the bond market, the central bank's support for liquidity is expected to be a focal point for August and September. The current monetary policy framework is characterized by structural liquidity shortages, and the central bank is likely to continue providing liquidity support during the peak issuance period of government and local bonds [21][27][33] - The central bank has shown a protective attitude towards liquidity, with significant operations such as a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase on June 6 and a 1.4 trillion yuan operation before the tax period in July [21][27][33] Group 3 - In terms of market positioning, long-term interest rate bonds (represented by 10-year government bonds) may have rebound opportunities, but the probability of breaking below previous lows is decreasing. The expected trading range for the 10-year government bond in the next 1-2 months is projected to be between 1.65% and 1.80% [32][33] - For credit bonds, caution is advised regarding the valuation adjustment risks of previously overheated credit bond ETFs, as well as the potential for redemption pressures and their transmission to the market. It is recommended to moderately reduce duration in the short term [32][33] - The ranking of bond market value for Q3 2025 is: convertible bonds > certificates of deposit > long-term interest rate bonds > credit bonds. The real pressure on the bond market may not occur in Q3, as August and September are expected to be peak periods for government bond supply [33]