2025年6月工业企业盈利数据点评：企业利润继续承压，亟待“反内卷”政策提振

Profit Trends - In June 2025, industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, narrowing from 9.1% in the previous month[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to June 2025 was -1.8%, down from -1.1% in January to May 2025[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in June 2025 was 6.0%, lower than 6.4% in the same month last year[4] Revenue and Production - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to June 2025 was +2.5%, slightly down from +2.7% in January to May 2025[2] - The industrial production growth rate increased to +6.8% in June 2025, up from +5.8% in May 2025[5] - Export delivery value for industrial enterprises grew by 4.0% year-on-year in June 2025, compared to only 0.6% in May 2025[5] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a positive profit growth of +9.1% in June 2025, recovering from -3.3% in the previous month, driven by improved exports and policy effects[22] - The upstream raw materials sector experienced a profit decline of -7.3% in June 2025, worsening from -4.0% in May 2025, due to high supply and weak demand[21] - The downstream consumer goods manufacturing sector's profit growth fell to -7.3% in June 2025, down from -6.0% in May 2025, influenced by declining export demand[23] Market Outlook - Future industrial profit performance is expected to depend on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, which have recently led to price rebounds in sectors like steel and coal[3] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.46% from January to June 2025, slightly below the previous year's 4.47%[15]