《中国银行业理财市场半年度报告（2025年上）点评》：2Q平稳收官，下半年还有哪些关注点？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][29]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market saw a net increase of 0.72 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with the total balance exceeding 30 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.4% growth since the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12% in the first half of 2025, supported by a loose monetary policy and a decline in bond market yields [2][3]. - The report highlights a trend of "disintermediation," where funds are increasingly flowing from deposits to wealth management products, driven by lower deposit rates and a favorable bond market environment [3][25]. Summary by Sections Scale Changes - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total balance of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of 1.53 trillion yuan, although this was lower than the same period last year [2][3]. - The increase in wealth management scale was primarily driven by a supportive monetary policy and a decline in deposit rates, which encouraged a shift towards wealth management products [3][4]. Product Characteristics - Fixed income products accounted for 97.2% of the total wealth management product balance, with a slight increase in the proportion of mixed and equity products due to improved market conditions [14][19]. - Open-ended products contributed 86.1% of the scale increase in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong investor preference for liquidity and redemption convenience [11][12]. Asset Allocation - The report notes a shift towards high liquidity assets, with significant increases in cash and bank deposits, while credit bonds saw a decrease in holdings [18][19]. - The allocation to public funds rose significantly, with a balance of 1.38 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a growing preference for flexible investment options [19][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the disintermediation trend will continue, but potential market disturbances may arise as the valuation adjustment process nears completion [25][26]. - There is an emphasis on enhancing net asset value resilience through diversified asset allocation strategies, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [26][27].