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海外分析师上调25Q2美国GDP增长预期
Soochow Securities·2025-07-27 12:31

Economic Outlook - Analysts have slightly raised the Q2 2025 US GDP growth forecast to +2.4% according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, and +1.68% according to the New York Fed Nowcast model[2] - The consensus among 86 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg indicates expected Q2-Q4 2025 GDP growth rates of 2.1%, 0.9%, and 1.2% respectively, with a slight upward revision for Q2 from +2.1%[2] - The probability of the US economy entering a recession within the next year remains at 35%, unchanged from previous estimates[2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Analysts have slightly downgraded inflation expectations for the upcoming quarters, with projected CPI growth rates for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 at 3.0%, 3.1%, 3.0%, and 3.1% respectively[2] - The expected PCE growth rates for the same period are 2.4%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.8%, indicating a slight downward adjustment[2] - Analysts maintain the forecast for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q3 2025, with expected policy rate ceilings of 4.25% and 4.00% for Q3 and Q4 2025 respectively[2] Market Performance - US stock markets reached new highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.46% and 1.02% respectively, driven by strong earnings reports and a US-Japan trade agreement[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.77 basis points to 4.388%, while the 2-year yield increased by 5.41 basis points to 3.923%[3] - The US dollar index fell by 0.85% to 97.65, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift[3] Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of the US economy weakening more than expected, with potential for Q2 GDP data to fall short of forecasts due to inventory cycle distortions from Q1[2] - The impact of tariffs may lead to preemptive production and consumption activities, potentially suppressing demand-driven inflation and affecting service consumption performance[2] - Upcoming non-farm payroll data for July is anticipated to exceed low market expectations, which could further adjust September's interest rate cut predictions[4]