转债市场周报：价格中枢再抬升，关注绩优品种-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - Last week, the equity market continued to rise, with sectors such as infrastructure, building materials, and coal performing well, while the banking sector adjusted. The bond market declined rapidly, and the convertible bond market saw most individual bonds close higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% for the week, the median price increased 1.66%, and the calculated arithmetic average parity rose 2.54%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased 1.33% compared to the previous week [1][8]. - Catalyzed by the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy and the official start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, market sentiment remained high. The convertible bond market also rose with increased trading volume, and the median market price approached 130 yuan. Although many convertible bonds triggered the call provisions, the premium rates of high - priced convertible bonds did not significantly compress. The current cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is not high, and structural opportunities may still be dominant. It is recommended to focus on sectors such as technology growth, self - controllability, and those related to "anti - involution" [2][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Trends (July 21 - 25, 2025) Stock Market - The equity market continued to rise. Driven by the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy, sectors like infrastructure, building materials, and coal performed well, while the previously high - rising banking sector adjusted. Most Shenwan primary industries closed higher, with building materials (+8.20%), coal (+7.98%), and steel (+7.67%) leading the gains, and banking (-2.87%), communication (-0.77%), and public utilities (-0.27%) lagging [7][8]. Bond Market - The bond market declined rapidly. Due to the hydropower project, the "anti - involution" policy, and the change in open - market operations from net injection to net withdrawal, bond market sentiment was weak. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.73% on Friday, up 6.72bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond individual bonds closed higher. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.14% for the week, the median price increased 1.66%, and the arithmetic average parity rose 2.54%. The overall market conversion premium rate decreased 1.33% compared to the previous week. In terms of industries, building materials (+10.68%), coal (+6.01%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+4.74%) led the gains, while banking (-0.41%), social services (+0.57%), and environmental protection (+0.59%) lagged. Tianlu, Saili, Dayu, Songlin, and Punan convertible bonds had the highest gains, while Hongfeng, Huicheng, Bohui, Mingdian, and Limin convertible bonds had the largest losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 403.371 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 80.674 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week [1][8][11] Valuation Overview - As of July 25, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for par values in different ranges were at relatively high percentile levels. For bond - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM for par values below 70 yuan was -2.26%, at the 1%/0% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 37.04%, at the 70%/53% percentile since 2010/2021, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was -10.2%, at the 41%/39% percentile since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - Last week (July 21 - 25, 2025), no convertible bonds were announced for issuance, but Libo and Guanghe convertible bonds were listed. Libo Convertible Bond had a scale of 750 million yuan, and Guanghe Convertible Bond had a scale of 4.9 billion yuan. In the coming week (July 28 - August 1, 2025), no convertible bonds are announced for issuance, and Bo 25 Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 2.802 billion yuan. As of now, there are 71 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 113.9 billion yuan, including 4 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.28 billion yuan and 3 approved by the listing committee with a total scale of 3.95 billion yuan [28][29][30]