国泰君安期货研究周报：绿色金融与新能源-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to show a range - bound oscillation with long - short game. The macro - policy expectations and fundamental verification may fluctuate, and the short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the market [4]. - Stainless steel prices are dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The market is expected to follow the macro - sentiment direction with a range - bound logic [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment is hyped, and the fundamentals have support, but the disk may correct next week [31]. - Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the policy expectations of "anti - involution" [32]. - For lithium carbonate, there are large differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations [66]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: Macro and news factors jointly disturb, and nickel prices may range - bound. The policy expectations of macro - adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity are fermenting, but the fundamentals and macro - expectations may deviate. The short - term Indonesian policy news is within market expectations [4]. - Reality: The support of nickel ore is weakening, the short - term inventory of refined nickel is stable, but the expected increase in low - cost supply has a drag effect. The inventory of nickel - iron is high, but the marginal restocking slightly repairs the price [4]. - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 135 tons to 39,114 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons [6]. - Market News: There are various policy - related news from Indonesia, such as the APNI's suggestion on the HPM formula and the possible change of the RKAB approval cycle [9]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Macro - sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, and the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. The macro - policy expectations on the supply - side boost the market, but specific policy guidance is needed for a trend - upward movement [5]. - Supply - demand: It shows a double - weak pattern. The negative feedback leads to a decline in supply, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The production and demand data of China and Indonesia show certain changes [5]. - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the inventory of different types of stainless steel also decreased [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The disk is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has increased. The Friday closing price is 9,725 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have also risen [27]. - Supply - demand Fundamentals: The industry inventory is de - stocked again. The supply side has a marginal increase in weekly production, and the demand side has stable short - term demand from downstream industries [28]. - 后市观点: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The disk may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [31]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The disk has risen significantly, and the spot quotation is high. The Friday closing price is 51,025 yuan/ton, and there is some high - price成交 in the spot market [27]. - Supply - demand Fundamentals: The short - term weekly production has a marginal increase, and the upstream inventory is de - stocked. The demand side has a decline in silicon wafer production due to terminal factors [29]. - 后市观点: It is in a policy - dominated market with a short - term callback drive. The market is trading on the supply - side changes brought by "anti - involution" [32]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The main contract has risen rapidly with significant pull - backs. The 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased [63]. - Supply - demand Fundamentals: The inventory continues to increase. The supply side has an increase in lithium concentrate price, and there are differences in the market's view on the impact of "anti - involution" on production. The demand side has weak purchasing willingness at high prices [64]. - 后市观点: There are large differences between long and short positions, and the price will have wide - range fluctuations. The market has different views on the impact of key mines' production reduction or suspension [66].