宏观量化经济指数周报20250727：“反内卷”尚未改变货币政策态度-20250727

Economic Indicators - As of July 27, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is at 50.10%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, up 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[7] - The ELI index as of July 27, 2025, is -0.81%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating that the "anti-involution" policy has not yet changed the monetary policy stance[11] Industrial Production - The operating rate for major industries remains stable, with the steel mill blast furnace operating rate at 83.48%, unchanged from last week[15] - The inventory of iron ore at ports is recorded at 137.94 million tons, up 12.34 million tons from the previous week[16] Consumption Trends - Weekly average sales of passenger cars reached 58,207 units, an increase of 7,266 units year-on-year, but a decrease of 12% month-on-month[21] - The consumer price index for textiles recorded 105.86 points, down 1.36 percentage points from the previous week[22] Investment Insights - The land supply area in 100 major cities reached 1,387.59 million square meters, up 8.81% week-on-week[25] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 133.91 million square meters, up 3.50% week-on-week[26] Export Performance - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1,592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export prices[34] - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports from July 7 to July 13 was 26,676.6 million tons, up 2.43% week-on-week[33] Inflation and Price Trends - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.72 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week[39] - The Brent crude oil futures price is recorded at $68.79 per barrel, down $0.26 from the previous week[39] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 16,563 billion yuan in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan for the week[44] - The 7-day SHIBOR rate increased from 1.4770% to 1.6200% over the week, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions[44] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could impact trade dynamics[48] - The effectiveness of newly implemented policies may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[48]