镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Conditions: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - Fundamentals: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - Market News: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Movements: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - Outlook: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - Market Outlook: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Performance: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - Outlook: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].