黑色金属周报合集-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - Logic: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - Logic: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - Supply Data: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - Contract Performance: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - Spot Price: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - Supply: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - Demand: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - Inventory: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.