市场形态周报（20250721-20250725）：本周指数普遍上涨-20250727

• The report utilizes the Heston model to calculate implied volatility for near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[6] - Positive signals appeared 3052 times from July 14 to July 18, with an average future high-point success rate of 68.64%. Negative signals appeared 3426 times, with an average future low-point success rate of 27.06%[10] - The broad-based timing strategy signals indicate "bullish" for indices such as ChiNext Index, SSE 50, Wind Microcap Index, Hang Seng Equal Weight Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng Hong Kong 35, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Financials, Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 100[12] - The industry timing strategy is constructed using the scissors difference ratio of long-short signals for industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish signals appear on a given day, the scissors difference value and ratio are set to zero. The model outperformed all respective industry indices historically, demonstrating excellent backtesting results[13] - Industry timing strategy signals show "bullish" for sectors such as building materials, light manufacturing, home appliances, textiles and apparel, non-ferrous metals, power and utilities, steel, consumer services, transportation, coal, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, and petrochemicals[15]