地方债周度跟踪：新增地方债发行提速，挖利差行情或接近尾声-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a week-on-week basis this period, and it is expected that both the issuance and net financing of local government bonds will decrease slightly on a week-on-week basis next period but will still remain at a relatively high level. As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is faster than that of the same period in 2024 and is comparable to that of the same period in 2023. The current local government bond spread trading may be approaching its end [1]. Summary by Directory 1. This period's local government bond issuance volume increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - This period (July 21 - July 27, 2025) local government bonds issued a total of 375.755 billion yuan and had a net financing of 292.39 billion yuan (the previous period was 251.183 billion yuan and 152.933 billion yuan respectively). It is expected that the issuance/ net financing next period (July 28 - August 3, 2025) will be 337.175 billion yuan/ 243.062 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.17 years, which was longer than the 14.57 years of the previous period (July 14 - July 20, 2025) [1][5]. - As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/ new special bonds accounted for 64.6% and 59.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 67.2% and 63.1%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 48.8%/ 40.2% and 52.2%/ 42.7% respectively, and in 2023 it was 64.1%/ 60.7% and 65.8%/ 62.2% respectively [1]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025 is 2935.3 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 168.1 billion yuan. As of July 25, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from July to September 2025, totaling 2935.3 billion yuan (July - September are 1341.4 billion yuan, 923.4 billion yuan, and 670.5 billion yuan respectively), of which new special bonds are 168.1 billion yuan [1]. - This period, 34.2 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 11.9 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts were issued. As of July 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 656.4 billion yuan (34.2 billion yuan was issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts was 1836.4 billion yuan (11.9 billion yuan was issued this period), and the issuance progress reached 91.8%, among which 24 regions such as Zhejiang have completed all issuances (no new regions this period) [1]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds both narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate remained flat - As of July 25, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 6.76BP and 12.75BP respectively, narrowing by 3.72BP and 3.40BP compared to July 18, 2025 (which were 10.48BP and 16.15BP respectively on July 18, 2025), and were at the 0.30% and 47.80% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [1]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.74%, which was the same as the previous period's 0.74%. This period, the yields and liquidity of 20 - 30Y local government bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Fujian, and Shandong were better than the national average [1].