可选消费W30周度趋势解析：大基建落地带来低估值低预期传统消费Beta走强，新消费概念股继续承压-20250727

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, JD Group, and Midea Group, while some companies like Lululemon are rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of major infrastructure projects is driving the outperformance of traditional consumption stocks with low valuations and expectations, while new consumption concepts are under pressure [20]. - The report highlights a rotation in investment focus from high-valuation, high-expectation new consumption stocks to low-valuation, low-expectation traditional consumption stocks [5][12]. Weekly Performance Review - The weekly performance of various sectors shows that daily necessities, domestic cosmetics, and domestic sportswear outperformed MSCI China, while overseas sportswear, pets, and gold jewelry sectors experienced negative growth [4][10]. - The life necessities sector saw a weekly increase of 7.6%, with Baiya shares rising by 15.5% [5][12]. - Domestic cosmetics increased by 2.8%, driven by rising cases of mosquito-borne diseases in southern China, benefiting companies like Runben and Shanghai Jahwa [5][12]. - The luxury goods sector rose by 2.2%, with LVMH showing signs of recovery in its second-quarter performance [5][12]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are still valued below their average over the past five years, with the overseas sportswear sector expected PE at 33.9 times, which is 55% of its historical average [15]. - The domestic sportswear sector has a projected PE of 13.3 times, representing 77% of its historical average [15]. - The luxury goods sector is projected to have a PE of 25.2 times, which is 45% of its historical average [15]. Company-Specific Insights - Companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning have shown mixed performance, with Li Ning increasing by 2.5% while Anta faced challenges due to rumors of narrowing brand acquisition [11][12]. - The report notes that several new consumption companies will face unlock events, with significant percentages of their shares becoming tradable in the coming months [13][14].