宏观周报：反内卷成为重要交易线索-20250727

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month, indicating sustained travel demand[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 as of July 25, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 26, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38% in July, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of electric furnaces dropped by 1.45 percentage points to 51.59%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants significantly declined by 4 percentage points to 28.8% due to weather impacts[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the price of eggs rose by 5.56% due to seasonal demand[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables increased by 0.27%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits decreased by 2.31%[4] International Macro - The U.S. employment market remains stable, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, alleviating short-term concerns about rising unemployment rates[9] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below the expected 52.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[9] Policy and Market Trends - The yield on 30-year government bonds rose to 1.9725% (+8 basis points), while the 10-year yield reached 1.7324% (+7 basis points), indicating a rapid upward shift in the yield curve[8] - The black commodity prices saw a broad increase, with coking coal prices rising by 21.21% and rebar prices increasing by 4.21% as of July 25[7]