商品价格大幅波动，关注反内卷后续政策

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's H1 GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but the urgency for policies decreased. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible intensified pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. Policies for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new - energy vehicles are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have rebounded. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and the US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten" policies. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has begun, which may drag down commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals of commodities are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high. For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on industrial products on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, while the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the real - estate chain being dragged down by weak property sales still exists [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition. Policies for "anti - involution" in multiple industries are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced, and a survey of old petrochemical equipment is underway [2]. - Trump signed the bill, and the US has entered a new policy stage. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has started, and multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations. The current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, which may impact commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations; the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; OPEC+ is accelerating production increases; and the short - term volatility of agricultural products is relatively limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5] To - do News - China - EU leaders held the 25th meeting, aiming to deepen bilateral relations. The EU passed a measure to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [6]. - South Korea plans to invest at least $100 billion in the US. The preliminary value of the eurozone's July composite PMI was 51, higher than expected [6]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell [6]. - The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including Indonesia and Japan. Thailand is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the new tariff rate may drop to about 20% [6]. - The 7 - month LPR quote remained stable. The EU and the US may reach a trade agreement this weekend. The pound and the euro had certain fluctuations [6]. - China has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [6]. Macroeconomic - The US economic data shows that GDP growth, manufacturing and service PMIs, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and net exports have different trends and fluctuations [8]. - The European economic data shows that GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus have their own characteristics and changes [9]. - The Chinese economic data shows that GDP growth, net exports, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and fiscal revenue and expenditure have different performance and trends [10].