油料周报：市场消费淡季，油料延续震荡-20250727

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - The oil market continues to fluctuate during the off - season of market consumption. The soybean market has a tight supply of domestic beans, and although it is in the consumption off - season, the bottom of the soybean price is supported. The peanut market is in a state of weak and narrow - range fluctuation, with a lack of obvious one - way driving factors [1][3][7] Summary by Directory Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Price Quotes: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2509 this week was 4,225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan or 0.9%. The spot basis of edible beans in different regions has changed to varying degrees [1] Soybean Supply and Demand - Arrival Forecast: In July 2025, Brazilian soybeans arriving in China are expected to be 10.82 million tons, Argentine soybeans 1.19 million tons, and US soybeans 0 tons, totaling 12.01 million tons. The remaining grain in the Northeast is scarce, and the supply of domestic beans is relatively tight. The auction of old grain and the small - scale listing of early - maturing new soybeans in Hubei have alleviated some supply pressure [2] Market Analysis - The price center of the main soybean futures contract 2509 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange continued to move up this week. The soybean price in the Northeast remained stable due to limited supply, while the prices in the Yangtze and Yellow River production areas were slightly weak. The domestic soybean market is in a state of shortage between old and new crops, and the overall sales are not good due to the consumption off - season, but the bottom of the price is supported [3] Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Price Quotes: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan or 1%. The spot basis in different regions has changed to varying degrees [4] Peanut Supply and Demand - As of July 24, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 107,050 tons, a decrease of 4,360 tons from last week [5] Oil Mills - Arrival Situation: The arrival volume of oil mills this week was 640 tons, a decrease from last week. The domestic market for commercial peanuts had low arrival volume, and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming inventory. The overall market trading was light, and most market prices were basically stable [6] Market Analysis - The domestic peanut price fluctuated weakly this week. As of July 24, 2025, the average price of national general peanuts was 8,680 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease from last week. The peanut spot market lacked obvious one - way driving factors, and the trading atmosphere remained dull [7]