国债期货周报：财政预期升温与股债分流共振，国债期货全线收跌-20250727

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, influenced by multiple factors such as the increasing expectation of fiscal expansion, the continuous seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and fluctuations in the capital market. Although the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, long - term fundamental support remains, and there may be opportunities for a rebound after the market correction [1][2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - Macroeconomic Conditions: On May 20, the central bank cut the LPR, and major state - owned and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates. In July, the LPR remained stable. Sino - US economic and trade talks are scheduled from July 27 - 30. In the first half of 2025, the national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure and optimized revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight 0.3% year - on - year decrease, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. Government - funded budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year. The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year [1]. - Funding Conditions: On July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates (1D, 7D, 14D) were 1.52%, 1.65%, and 1.67% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently risen [2]. - Market Conditions: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.31 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 108.18 yuan, and 117.95 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were - 0.11%, - 0.36%, - 0.53%, and - 1.68% respectively. The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.11 yuan, 0.10 yuan, and 0.80 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - Single - side Trading: With the rising repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread. - Hedging: As there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3].