基本面暂陷供需两弱格局，铜价维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: On hold [5] - Options: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro sentiment continues to recover, which is beneficial for the performance of risk assets. However, the US tariff policy may increase future uncertainties. The market has largely digested the potential 50% tariff on copper. Fundamentally, copper is currently in a weak supply - demand situation. The price is expected to have limited performance but also limited downside due to tight mine supply. The expected price range next week is 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - Spot Situation: From July 26, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 79,450 yuan/ton to 79,795 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 125 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, with a fluctuating downward trend. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 0.63 million tons to 12.85 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 7.34 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons, bonded area inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 8.22 million tons, and Comex inventory increased by 0.58 million tons to 24.86 million tons [1]. Market Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Trump administration introduced a differential tariff plan, imposing 15% - 50% stepped tariffs on imported goods from many countries. There is a conflict between Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump, and the market has significant differences on the Fed's future interest - rate path. Domestically, the anti - involution action has increased market risk sentiment, benefiting non - ferrous metals to some extent [2]. - Mine - end: The copper concentrate spot market was quiet. Traders were waiting for September - loaded futures, and smelters received few copper concentrate quotes. A large mining company sold 20,000 tons of September - loaded standard ore at a low price of TC - 40 dollars/ton, and a trader sold 10,000 tons of July - loaded Grasberg ore at a high price of TC - 30 dollars/ton [2]. - Mining Company Dynamics: Teck Resources reduced its 2024 copper production target from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons due to tailings storage issues at the Quebrada Blanca mine and approved a 2.1 - 2.4 billion Canadian dollar investment plan to extend the HVC mine's life. Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations after an accident. Some domestic large - scale mining enterprises also stopped production due to safety incidents [3]. - Smelting and Import: The Yangshan copper premium rose slightly. The average price of August QP bills of lading was 66.2 dollars/ton (up 1.2 dollars/week), and the average price of warehouse receipts was 49.2 dollars/ton (up 0.2 dollars/week). The import loss was about 800 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Trading: The market trading was light. Reasons include US tariff policies leading to a large number of July bills of lading being re - exported to Hawaii, reduced arrival expectations from an African smelter in August, and long - term orders being postponed to mid - to - late August. Although the export window opened briefly, weak downstream demand limited buying. The market is closely watching the progress of China - US and Chile - US tariff negotiations [4]. - Consumption: In the week of July 26, 2025, the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry dropped to 69.37%, a 4.85 - percentage - point decline. The copper cable industry's operating rate dropped to 70.83%, a 2.07 - percentage - point decline and a 15.28 - percentage - point year - on - year decline. SMM expects the operating rate to drop to 70.3% next week, with a 21.2 - percentage - point year - on - year decline [4]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, with an expected price range of 77,800 - 80,300 yuan/ton next week. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [5]. - Arbitrage: On hold [5] - Options: Short put @77,000 yuan/ton [5]