Changjiang Securities·2025-07-27 15:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The current round of supply-side optimization in the steel industry emphasizes the "supporting the strong and eliminating the weak" approach, indicating that underperforming capacities should be limited while leading companies are expected to strengthen [2][6] - The market sentiment has significantly improved with the deepening of the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a positive signal of "volume and price linkage" in the steel market [4] - The report highlights that the execution of the "anti-involution" policy may be smoother compared to previous years due to the absence of large-scale stimulus measures, suggesting a gradual improvement in the industry's long-term trends despite short-term fluctuations [2][6] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.03% year-on-year and 0.36% month-on-month, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel increased by 2.10 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies decreased to 2.4223 million tons, a decline of 0.21 thousand tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory decreased by 0.14% month-on-month and 24.22% year-on-year, with long product inventory down by 27.40% year-on-year and plate inventory down by 17.74% year-on-year [4] Price and Profitability - Shanghai rebar prices rose to 3,450 RMB/ton, an increase of 180 RMB/ton, while hot-rolled prices reached 3,520 RMB/ton, up 160 RMB/ton [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 238 RMB/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 495 RMB/ton [5] - The report suggests that with the support of the "anti-involution" policy and strong determination to curb deflation risks, steel prices may show an upward trend that is easier to rise than to fall [4] Elasticity and Valuation - The report calculates the elasticity of steel stocks based on the assumption that the average net profit per ton of listed steel companies could rise to 200/300/400 RMB/ton, compared to 56 RMB/ton in Q1 2025 [6] - Companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and CITIC Special Steel are identified as having significant elasticity [6] - The report emphasizes that if the valuation of steel stocks returns to historical averages, it could indicate strong investment opportunities, particularly for companies with low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][32] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Hualing Steel [32] 2. Steel stocks with low PB ratios that may experience significant performance and valuation recovery, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [32] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform theme, which could enhance asset quality and subsequent valuation recovery [33] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource leaders, particularly in specialized fields, are also highlighted as worthy of attention [33]