中原期货策略周报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new starting point. However, there may be a consolidation process above 3600 points. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [2]. - For options, trend investors should focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors should buy wide - straddles to go long on volatility [3]. - Aluminum prices may maintain high - level consolidation in the short term [3]. - For coking coal, temporarily pay attention to the support around 1000, and for coke, focus on the support around 1500 [3]. - Urea shows a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand in the short term, but there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizer demand [4]. - For ferroalloys, industrial selling hedges can wait and see, and avoid chasing high at present [4]. - Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure, with support levels for rebar around 3100 - 3150 and for hot - rolled coils around 3250 - 3300 [4]. - For eggs, go long on the 8/9 contracts at low prices, as the production and seasonal cycles are approaching [4]. - Hog futures are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations next week [5]. 3. Summaries by Variety Stock Index - On Thursday, most European and American stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs. Trump visited the Fed and discussed interest rates with Powell. The Shanghai Composite Index attacked 3600 points again on Friday and finally closed above it. The three major A - share indices are above the 5 - day moving average, and the trading volume of the two markets remains above 1.8 trillion yuan. Market attention focuses on the China - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting [2]. Options - This week, the A - share market continued to rise, with the three major indices hitting new highs for the year. The trading volume was above 1.7 trillion yuan per day. The moving averages of the CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 indices are in a long - position arrangement, and the K - line indicators are red. The basis of futures contracts and the PCR and implied volatility of options have changed to different degrees [3]. Aluminum - Overseas tariffs have been confirmed and are lower than expected, and domestic "anti - involution" policies have driven up the prices of related industrial products. However, due to the release of supply increments and the off - season of consumption, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, with an increase in daily production and a decrease in inventory. The online transactions have continued to rise, and coke prices have increased by three rounds and a fourth - round increase has started. However, the adjustment of trading limits by the Dalian Commodity Exchange has caused short - term pressure on double coking [3]. Urea - The domestic urea market price has been running weakly. There are both device overhauls and restarts, resulting in a phased reduction in supply. The inventory has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The agricultural demand is approaching the end, and the demand for autumn fertilizers is weak, but there are still support factors such as export demand [4]. Ferroalloys - Although the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys has not changed much compared to the first half of the year, the raw material coal and macro - policy expectations have changed. The "silicon" series of commodities are relatively strong, and ferroalloys have followed the upward trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The inventory of the five major steel products has decreased slightly. Rebar production and demand have both increased, and the inventory has decreased again. Hot - rolled coil production and demand have both decreased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The raw material prices have fluctuated greatly, and steel billet prices have been adjusted downwards [4]. Eggs - The national egg spot price was stable last week and declined after reaching the peak on the weekend. High - temperature weather in the north has affected the laying rate, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory in most production areas has decreased, and the market demand has increased, with a strong bullish sentiment [4]. Hogs - The spot price of hogs has continued to decline, with high supply and low demand due to hot weather. However, futures have performed relatively strongly, driven by the overall commodity market and expectations of future consumption improvement [5]