天风证券晨会集萃-20250728

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate index has shown a zigzag pattern of excess returns over the past year, characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation. The average excess return during the last six upward waves reached 13%, lasting an average of 18 days [2][28][29] - It is suggested that if the upcoming political bureau meeting or related policies signal more aggressive real estate stimulus, the real estate index may initiate a new round of upward movement. However, the long-term outlook remains dependent on the stabilization of the fundamental market conditions [2][28][29] - Key themes identified include the push for orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality development, significant investment in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, and the high demand in the AIDC sector driven by policy [2][28][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic fiscal situation showed a slight decline in June, but land transaction recovery has led to an increase in government fund income. The overall fiscal revenue remained flat year-on-year, while tax revenue showed a positive trend [4][32] - Internationally, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East are being monitored, with significant political figures expressing their views on interest rate policies [4][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, as the market may experience overheating and increased volatility following recent highs [4][32] Group 3 - The report on the bond market suggests that the current "triple concerns" may be alleviating, with marginal improvements in the fundamentals and policy expectations boosting market sentiment. The bond market is expected to stabilize as the central bank's supportive stance continues [10][12] - It is noted that the bond market's rapid adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with the long-end interest rates expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8%, indicating potential value in allocations above 1.75% [10][12] - The report also highlights the need for ongoing observation of policy outcomes from the upcoming political bureau meeting and changes in funding and deposit pricing [10][12] Group 4 - The report on the construction materials sector indicates that signs of stabilization in the real estate chain are emerging, with non-traditional building materials showing higher demand. The focus is on structural optimization and growth opportunities [21][22] - Recommendations include investing in cement companies benefiting from policy-driven capacity recovery, consumer building materials with strong growth potential, and fiberglass companies anticipating significant demand increases [21][22] - The report also mentions the potential for explosive growth in the civil explosives market driven by coal mining activities in Xinjiang [21][22]