五矿期货贵金属日报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's monetary policy is expected to turn dovish during the July FOMC meeting, and the rate - cut amplitude this year may exceed market expectations. There is a possibility of an unexpected rate cut. Even if Powell completes his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually turn loose, and the subsequent rate - cut amplitude may exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset in the precious metals strategy, with a focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.45% to 773.84 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 2.17% to 9169.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold dropped 0.11% to 3331.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver dropped 0.14% to 38.31 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.4%, and the US Dollar Index was 97.61 [2] - Other price data includes Au(T + D) at 773.61 yuan/gram, a 0.19% drop; Ag(T + D) at 9372.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.22% increase; London Gold at 3343.50 dollars/ounce, a 0.66% drop; London Silver at 38.74 dollars/ounce, a 0.74% drop. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 22.60 tons to 15230.43 tons, a 0.15% increase [4] Market Outlook - This week, the Fed will hold the July FOMC meeting. The market expects a 95.9% probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged and a 4.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The market also prices in 25 - basis - point rate cuts in the September and December FOMC meetings. Trump's visit to the Fed and his remarks suggest a possible dovish stance from the Fed, with the possibility of an unexpected rate cut [2] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 3338.50 dollars/ounce, a 0.97% drop; trading volume was 19.32 million lots, a 6.52% drop; open interest increased by 9.12% to 48.94 million lots; inventory increased by 0.39% to 1175 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) was 777.32 yuan/gram, a 0.18% drop; trading volume was 23.81 million lots, a 45.61% drop; open interest dropped by 0.40% to 42.27 million lots; inventory increased by 3.07% to 30.26 tons [7] - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 38.33 dollars/ounce, a 2.44% drop; open interest increased by 1.29% to 17.37 million lots; inventory increased by 0.51% to 15562 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) was 9392.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.06% increase; trading volume was 97.02 million lots, a 39.34% drop; open interest dropped by 1.31% to 95.20 million lots; inventory dropped by 0.12% to 1187.25 tons [7] Price and Volume Charts - The report contains multiple charts showing the relationship between the price, trading volume, and open interest of gold and silver in different markets (COMEX, SHFE, etc.), as well as the relationship between gold prices and the US Dollar Index, real interest rates, and the net long positions of managed funds [9][12][17] Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On July 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 5.33 yuan/gram (23.14 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.11 yuan/gram (22.16 dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 573.66 yuan/kilogram (2.49 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 582.96 yuan/kilogram (2.53 dollars/ounce) [52]