黑色建材日报-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Prices and Positions: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - Market Analysis: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - Prices and Positions: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices and Positions: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - Prices and Positions: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - Soda Ash: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].