五矿期货早报有色金属-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: This week, several major macro - events are approaching. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. However, due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, copper prices are expected to be limited in their upward movement and will mainly fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for SHFE copper is 77,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic black - series commodities have peaked and declined, and the approaching effective date of US new tariffs has cooled market sentiment. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports aluminum prices, the off - season in downstream demand and the weakening export demand limit the upward movement of aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the procurement of downstream battery manufacturers is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the month - to - month spread may strengthen. Currently, prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [4]. - Zinc: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply remains loose, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are on the rise. In the short - term, the Fed's dovish stance has raised expectations of monetary easing, and there are still structural risks overseas. Prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [6]. - Tin: The supply of tin is at a low level, and demand is also weak, showing a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline due to weak demand. Although the price of nickel - iron has stabilized and strengthened, there is still an oversupply pressure. The price of refined nickel is driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. In the context of high stainless - steel inventory, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The news from the mining end has strengthened the bullish sentiment, but the actual fundamentals have not reversed. The spot market is cautious. Due to the high risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously. The expected trading range for the main contract on the GZEE is 76,500 - 81,100 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. With the decline in the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market and the expected alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot goods, it is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3,050 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The supply of stainless steel has tightened, and demand has shown signs of recovery, with an optimized supply - demand structure. However, the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been substantially improved [17]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the upward pressure on prices is large due to the weakening commodity market atmosphere and the large difference between futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper rose 0.02% to 9,796 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,800 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, LME inventory increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 0.2 tons [1]. - Spot: The LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton. The supply of domestic spot goods increased, and on Friday, the spot in Shanghai had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures [1]. - Scrap Copper: The refined - scrap spread was 840 yuan/ton on Friday. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - Copper Rod: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: SHFE aluminum main contract rose 1.22% (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum fell 0.27% to 2,631 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.8 to 51.0 tons, and bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.5 to 11.1 tons. Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 1.1 to 14.6 tons [3]. - Spot: On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - Price: The SHFE lead index rose 0.36% to 16,958 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 2.5 to 2,030.5 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.93 tons. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.58 tons [4]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of primary lead production decreased slightly, while that of recycled lead production increased from a low level. The price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - Price: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 dollars/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1.33 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.69 tons [6]. - Supply: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly [6]. Tin - Supply: There is an expectation of tin ore supply recovery in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end still faces raw - material supply pressure, and the operating rate is at a low level [7]. - Demand: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, and overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased slightly to 10,096 tons as of July 25, 2025 [7]. Nickel - Nickel Ore: The price of nickel ore fell. The procurement of smelters decreased, and the price of wet - process nickel ore remained stable [8]. - Nickel Iron: The market sentiment improved slightly, and prices stabilized and strengthened. There is still an oversupply pressure [8]. - Refined Nickel: The price was driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. Spot trading was cold [8]. - Inventory: Global visible nickel inventory decreased by 1.43% to 24.3 tons. China's inventory increased, and LME's decreased [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 2.67% on Friday and 16.71% for the week. The LC2509 contract rose 5.01% and 15.09% for the week [12]. - Spot: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.70% [12]. - Mining: The price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate increased by 8.86% and 17.81% for the week [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 0.12% to 3,410 yuan/ton [14]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [14]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.69 tons, at a historical low [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract closed at 13,030 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [16]. - Spot: The price of 304 cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly [16]. - Raw Materials: The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron, 304 scrap steel, and high - carbon ferrochrome remained unchanged [17]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased to 111.86 tons, with a 2.54% week - on - week decrease [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton (as of Friday's close) [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.6 to 4.3 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.1 tons [19]. - Production: The production of cast aluminum alloy was about 14.2 tons, with ADC12 production at about 8.0 tons, a slight increase [19].