钢材周报：市场氛围仍在，钢价高位波动-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, coking coal in the black sector became the biggest driving force, with consecutive daily limit up movements driving the continuous upward trend of steel prices. The expected Politburo meeting and industry policies will still support the market, and the overall warm atmosphere has not ended. The supply - demand fundamentals of the five major steel products have limited contradictions, with supply and demand rising and falling among different varieties and relatively stable inventory [3]. - Currently, the market is trading around macro - sentiment and industry policy expectations. Under the tone of "anti - involution and capacity reduction", many industries have introduced corresponding measures, and the market atmosphere is still quite enthusiastic. Before the introduction of steel policies, the market may not experience an obvious correction, but after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal, the high - level risks are also increasing. The steel market may enter a high - level fluctuation state in the future, and the possibility of further upward movement cannot be ruled out. In the medium - to - long term, pay attention to policy expectations and consumption nodes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - Monthly Data: In June 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 71910,000 tons (-4.1% year - on - year), crude steel was 83180,000 tons (-9.2% year - on - year), and steel was 127840,000 tons (1.8% year - on - year). The cumulative production of pig iron was 434670,000 tons (-0.8% year - on - year), crude steel was 514830,000 tons (-3.0% year - on - year), and steel was 734380,000 tons (4.6% year - on - year). Steel imports were 470,000 tons (-18.3% year - on - year) and exports were 9680,000 tons (10.9% year - on - year) [5]. - Weekly Data: As of July 25, 2025, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 866970 tons (-1.22% change), with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. Among them, the output of rebar was 211960 tons (2.9% change, -6% cumulative year - on - year), wire rod was 85250 tons (-1.1% change, -10% cumulative year - on - year), hot - rolled coil was 317490 tons (-3.65% change, 0% cumulative year - on - year), cold - rolled coil was 86960 tons (-0.05% change, 1.05% cumulative year - on - year), and medium - thick plate was 165310 tons (0.68% change, 1.68% cumulative year - on - year) [6]. - Production Profit: On July 24, 2025, the profits of different steel products in different regions showed different changes. For example, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 349, rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 5, rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was 74, and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 42 [22]. Steel Demand - Building Materials Consumption: The real - estate high - frequency data shows that the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 6.7%. The cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 28%. The concrete shipment volume is relatively balanced, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15% [29][32]. - Coil Consumption: The current export volume of steel is still at a high level. Recently, the domestic and foreign prices of hot - rolled coils have declined, which may affect future exports [38]. Steel Inventory - Inventory Data: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1337000 tons (-1.16% change), with a year - on - year decrease of 23.97%. Among them, the rebar inventory was 538640 tons (-4.62% change, -29.15% year - on - year), wire rod inventory was 98220 tons (1.05% change, -36% year - on - year), hot - rolled coil inventory was 345160 tons (2.25% change, -20% year - on - year), cold - rolled coil inventory was 169950 tons (-0.27% change, -10.06% year - on - year), and medium - thick plate inventory was 184530 tons (0.43% change, -17.56% year - on - year) [6]. - Basis and Spread: The rebar basis remained stable, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. During this price increase, the spot and futures prices generally increased synchronously, and the low rebar inventory supported the spot price. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline this week, and seasonally, it still faces the law of weakening in the later stage. The rebar monthly spread continued to weaken this week, and the back structure continued to develop. The 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuated at a low level this week with little change [52][57][62].